The DOJ case will hang over Apple for many years
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As soon as possible, the trial will begin, likely in late 2026, analysts are generally baffled by the Justice Department's complex antitrust lawsuit and are advising investors to stick with Apple.
The Justice Department suing Apple has made headlines around the world, with all initial reports highlighting the allegations. However, after the initial news reports, the news cycle moved on to analyzing the details.
As you might expect, in AppleInsider notes and television interviews, stock analysts and investment firms are examining the allegations. Basically they come to the same conclusions.
Gene Munster
Analyst Gene Munster says he believes the Justice Department is actually targeting the Apple Services division, which he calls the most profitable part of the company's profits.
Muenster notes that Apple is not the first company to be sued by the Justice Department, which it says is doing its job of reining in big companies. But ultimately he believes this particular case will lead nowhere.
This is partly because any regulation of large companies is difficult. However, this is also because even though the Department of Justice views Apple as a bad actor for forcing people to buy its products, the truth is that users are happy with Apple devices.
JP Morgan
Investment firm JP Morgan says the Justice Department's lawsuit against Apple is hardly unexpected, but I was surprised by the scale of the costume. Attacking Apple on so many fronts means the company will need to do more to refute the allegations and will be left hanging over its work for years to come.
Then the very broad attack on Apple's business also means that clear results are unlikely to be immediate. JP Morgan analysts are now warning investors that any outcome is at least three years away.
They also argue that in the short term, investors should focus on Apple's AI update cycle.
TD Cowen
TD Cowen believes the trial could not begin until the second half of 2026, based on how Similar cases have been filed against Amazon and Google for a long time. In this case, he believes the impact of any future regulations on Apple will be negligible, but in the short term, investors selling shares could become a bigger issue.
“At this stage, the lawsuit does not appear to pose an existential threat to AAPL in the same vein as historical… cases,” TD Cowen analysts said in a note seen by AppleInsider, although Investor concerns about impairment of long-lived assets or loss of shares in high-margin service businesses could be a headwind for the stock.”
Josh Brown of Ritholtz
“It's very difficult to prove true harm to consumers,” Josh Brown of investment firm Ritholtz said on CNBC. “Nobody has an eye on choosing Apple over Android… it's consumer preference and they're constantly signaling that they're happy and want more.”
Brown also expects the case to take two or three years to resolve. Despite this, he does not foresee this causing much difficulty for Apple — and says he has no intention of selling Apple shares because of the case.
Satori Fund
Dan Niles of Satori Fund says he expects shares to fall following the announcement Growth followed immediately as investors heeded the advice to stick with Apple. That drop and rise would be enough for stockholders to benefit from selling Apple stock, according to Niles.
Overall, Niles says selling shares because of the Justice Department case is nonsense because it will be years before any decision is made.
However, he claims there are other reasons for the sale. These include the fact that Apple has already lost a lawsuit against Epic in Europe and that App Store rates have dropped, he said.
Clockwise Capital
James Cakmak, partner and portfolio manager at Clockwise Capital, is also critical of Apple, but agrees that the DOJ case would not harm the company.
Çakmak expects that Apple will eventually have to pay a fine, with the amount running into the billions. However, he doesn't see this as a problem given Apple's profitability.
He believes the ongoing case could hamper Apple's growth, but says the company is already facing growing pains.
Jim Cramer on CNBC
Reported by “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer investors' sell-off meant Apple shares fell just over 4% after the Justice Department's announcement. However, he then dropped the Justice Department's lawsuit.
“I just got a new reason to buy Apple, don’t waste your money on it,” he said. “I know a losing case when I see one, and the United States of America versus Apple is a loser.”
On the Friday morning show, Cramer continued his tirade against the lawsuit, focusing on a strange segment of the Justice Department's smartphone market.
What happens next?
Steps in the process have not yet been announced for the next event. However, Apple will likely start by dismissing the Justice Department's case.
At the same time, investors themselves are not so convinced of this. Shares fell 4.1% on early news of the lawsuit. This means Apple's valuation fell by about $113 billion.
However, there are signs that Dan Niles' forecast of a recovery in stocks will come true. The day after the announcement, Apple shares were back up 0.6% in pre-market trading Friday morning.
