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Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the popularity of the Apple Vision Pro is rapidly declining, but the trend he reports is consistent with everyone new Apple device and how they initially sell out before demand stabilizes.
On the first day of pre-orders, the Apple Vision Pro sold out in 18 minutes, and customers immediately noticed that shipping times were starting to stretch into weeks. Now, Ming-Chi Kuo notes that orders for the Apple Vision Pro are taking 3-5 days to arrive, and says that this is because “demand for the device declined quickly [after launch] and remained the same.”
In his blog, Kuo argues that unless “Apple lowers the price… or better apps come out, US shipment growth may be limited.” However, he expects those shipments to be “200,000-250,000 this year, which is better than Apple's initial estimate of 150,000-200,000” but it's “still a niche market.”
Kuo notes that limited demand in the US means Apple will have the production capacity to speed up the global rollout of the Apple Vision Pro.
“The actual release time will depend on Apple's software modification schedule to comply with regulations in other countries,” he says. “I still stand by my prediction that Apple could launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year.”
He also reports that recently “several low-power suppliers” of Apple Vision Pro components “increased production from 500,000-600,000 units to 700,000-800,000 units this year.” Apple has reportedly asked suppliers to do this to “reduce delivery times following global launch.”
Kuo, however, is at pains to point out that production capacity is not an indicator of how many devices will be shipped. “For example, the current iPhone assembly capacity is 250-300 million units per year, but actual shipments are much lower,” he says.
Vision Pro Update: US Market Demand Slows Significantly, Global Release Schedule Forecast, Supply Chain Expansion and Profitability Interpretations, New Model Forecast and Investment Strategyhttps://t. co/mGb0Pv0qfX
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) February 28, 2024
This new report is based on Kuo's industry sources, who also tell him that Apple “has not officially launched” either a “lower, cheaper version with reduced specifications (e.g. reduced number of cameras, removal of EyeSight, etc.) and a new model with improved specifications.”
However, he reports that mass production of Apple's next Vision Pro project is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026. However, this project is focused on “improving production and supply chain efficiency.” management rather than changing specifications.”
So this expected version of Apple's Vision Pro “may reduce costs” without reducing specifications, meaning the “user experience will be no different from the current model.” Kuo expects Apple to pass on its savings to customers, but that's not guaranteed.
There's also no release date for the next major version of Apple's Vision Pro, which Kuo predicts won't go into mass production until 2027.
These timings are consistent with other recent rumors regarding the future of Apple Vision Pro.
