Apple Vision Pro
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The new Apple Vision Pro is the first step in spatial computing and, more importantly, in the evolution of VisionOS. So the product launch is a win for Apple, no matter what Wall Street predicts.
There is a lot of controversy surrounding Apple Vision Pro and its launch. Who is it for, why does it exist, why didn't Apple wait until it could sell you AR sunglasses, and so on.
The answer to almost every question is simple – — Apple needed to release Apple Vision Pro and VisionOS to make further progress. If Apple's marketing around Apple Vision Pro is confusing or seems like it's lacking a killer app, it's not just you.
Apple needs consumers and developers to show it what this device is designed to do. And that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Of course, there is more to come, so I would like to explain why the Apple Vision Pro will be a winner — at least for Apple itself.
$3500 is just a fee for early access
Before we dive into the wins, let's discuss price and timing. Rumors suggest we won't see the base version of the Apple Vision until 2026 at the earliest, and the Apple Vision Pro 2 in 2027, so objectors may have to wait a while. That initial price of $3,500 partly explains the use of advanced technology.
Waiting until late 2024 or early 2025 to buy the Apple Vision Pro shouldn't be a problem for consumers worried that an upgrade could make the original model obsolete. The price will not change, just like the equipment will not change in the near future.
Apple Vision Pro won't need new hardware moving forward yet
So while some may save up to buy this product, put it on your Apple Card or skip it altogether, as time goes on this product becomes more consumer-oriented. Regardless, it will sell in small volumes regardless of Apple's offering simply because of the price.
I think it's worth using this hardware now, given the iPad Pro's face-mount functionality. If you can work on an iPad Pro today, Apple Vision Pro likely won't be a problem in the short term — although we still don't know how it will work on an 8 hour shift.
As Apple releases new versions of its operating systems and developers create new features for VisionOS and Apple Vision Pro, the situation can only get better. This collaboration is a win for consumers. For example, it wasn't until the release of the iPhone 6 Plus that the product line exploded with all the flaws ironed out and the possibility of a larger display.
Victory in the development of VisionOS
Apple Vision Pro and VisionOS reached its inevitable end point, being developed in isolation within Apple Park. The product had to be released, otherwise it might look cool but be impractical in real life, like AirPower or an AI badge.
Apple can't develop everything in a vacuum, especially something as important as VisionOS
We've seen this behavior with the Apple Watch, although it appears to be with less intentionality. The company seemed to believe the Apple Watch was one thing until users showed Apple how it was actually used, so watchOS 2 became a big fork in development.
Apple appears to be taking a more direct approach with Apple Vision Pro. This entry-level piece of hardware is costly for most average consumers, has no clear use case, and has minimal native application support at launch.
We do not agree that this is a development tool. This is clearly not everything, and this is not what Apple wants in the future.
Most of the initial sales will be developers and some enterprise buyers, but as hardware matures, more consumers will become part of this mix over time.
If VisionOS follows Apple's normal release schedule, VisionOS 2 will release in the fall. By then, Apple will likely have a much stronger presentation of Apple Vision Pro based on user and developer feedback.
Easy financial victory
Apple does not produce budget products, so it is not surprising that its first foray into spatial computing costs orders of magnitude more than competitors' $400 headsets. Remember, this is the same company that first launched the $1,000 iPhone X in a market filled with subsidized competitors, and then succeeded in selling it despite analysts' disbelief.
Apple Vision Pro has no real competitors at the time of launch, neither in its price category
Apple Vision Pro offers technology that analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes is two to three years ahead of Meta Quest. This technological advancement, combined with Apple's huge profits, makes the price of the Apple Vision Pro much more reasonable.
Apple is trying to sell its vision of the future today. Buying any future or concept technology is always expensive. Try buying one of the concept TVs shown at CES and you'll be out about $150,000.
Doing a little math, if Apple sold around 180,000 units of the Apple Vision Pro during the pre-order weekend alone, that would be around $680 million in revenue to start with. This doesn't include accessories, Apple Care, or memory upgrades.
For reference, Meta is estimated to have sold about 18 million Quest 2 headsets, with a top price of $400 each. This is 7.2 billion — Thus, Apple earned about 10% of this amount in the first weekend.
It's hard to call it a “project”, a “hobby” or a “glorified development tool”. I would call this a victory.
Time will tell what Wall Street thinks. Much of this depends on how Apple can present the results of its product.
The victory of innovation
Apple does not like competition, even if it is pure a win for consumers. This is why the company often positions itself and its products above the industries in which it operates, so as not to attract too many comparisons.
Apple Vision Pro is something new, an implementation of other virtual reality ideas
For example, Apple Vision Pro is described by Apple as a spatial computing device. This isn't classic AR, VR, or even MR, and Apple doesn't want it to be that way.
If we look back far enough, we can pull out the odd example of virtual reality from pop culture or a brief amazing experience with the Virtual Boy, but virtual reality as it exists today began to rear its head in the early 2010s. Have you seen this — a large visor covering someone's face, with large controllers wrapped around the person's hands.
Advancements in technology have made virtual reality more immersive over time, but the overall concept has remained the same. It's as if Nintendo stuck with the GameBoy Color and never looked for a new form factor.
Apple Vision Pro deviates from the standard, possibly creating an offshoot for competitors. Apple may have coined the term “spatial computing,” but it's almost certain other companies like Samsung will follow suit.
Competition breeds innovation, and Apple's approach to motion tracking, data communications and other technologies is likely to impact the entire industry. It's another win for Apple Vision Pro, an industry innovation engine that continues to create a faster virtual reality horse.
A look at the future of Apple
Every new Apple Product , announced since 2007, was pitted against its more successful sibling for comparison. It is unlikely that any other product in human history, at least in our lifetime, will come close to the success of the iPhone.
No first-generation product will likely ever replicate the iPhone moment
So defining the success of a product, especially an Apple product, can be difficult . Analysts often see numbers that companies in the industry would die for, but consider them too small for Apple.
Look at HomePod — the definition of success or failure changes depending on who you ask. We'll never know since Apple doesn't release sales figures, but it's still selling, so it's doing something for the company.
Obviously, the Apple Vision Pro is not a one-off Apple test, like some failed glasses or messaging platform. This is the beginning of a new platform that will define VisionOS and the future of Apple hardware.
