Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that demand for the Vision Pro is higher than Apple initially expected, and US shipments as expected to reach 200-250 thousand units this year.
While there were rumors about how many people bought the Vision Pro only to try it out before sending it back at the end of the 14-day return window, he estimates the current return rate has dropped to just 1 .%…
Kuo noted that delivery times had reached their highest point in more than a month, with some pre-orders placed on January 19 being pushed back to early March. This period has since been reduced to a few days, suggesting that production is now keeping pace with demand.
Delivery time for Vision Pro has now been reduced to 3-5 days (early March). The delivery time after pre-orders opened on January 19 was in early March, meaning that while the Vision Pro sold out after pre-orders opened due to early adopters purchasing it, demand for the device quickly declined and remained the same.
Demand for Vision Pro is higher than expected
He said current 2024 sales estimates are significantly higher than Apple originally expected, although the ranges he cites are large.
U.S. Shipments are expected to be 200,000–250,000 units this year, higher than Apple's initial estimate of 150,000–200,000 units, but it is still a niche market.
Apple has asked suppliers to increase production, which Kuo said is due to relatively strong demand in the United States and plans to begin sales in other countries in the coming months.
Returns are now less than 1%
Kuo says he was able to visit a production line dedicated to repairs and upgrades. Vision Pro's yield, and that his analysis shows that the yield level is now below 1%. This suggests that despite the initial hype surrounding the launch, those buying the product today have a good understanding of what they are buying and why.
No sign of a cheaper model yet
It is widely believed that the Vision Pro was Apple's attempt to create the most impressive product possible, with little regard for the cost of the device. The company is expected to opt for a cheaper model, which will likely ditch the EyeSight feature to save costs.
Kuo says his supply chain research hasn't yet found any evidence of this. therefore, he believes that work on a cheaper model is not yet officially underway.
9to5Mac's Take
As we've noted before, Kuo was once Apple's most trusted analyst with reliable sources in the supply chain, but now has a lot of speculation. I believe the job change means he will no longer have to spend as much time in China talking to Apple suppliers.
Of course, he cites a wide range of expectations for both Apples. and current trends seem much more indicative of educated guesses than anything based on hard data.
With a 1% recovery rate, it's useful to know the number of units repaired, but you can’ Don't express it as a percentage , if you don’t know sales volumes, and Kuo doesn’t know that. However, I'm willing to believe that the return rate will drop to negligible levels now that we're past the point where we just want to try it out for ourselves.
As for international rollout. There have been reports of a launch in China in April or May, and it's likely that it will launch in Europe either earlier or at the same time. It looks like people in some other countries won't have to wait too long.
Photo by Milo Kay on Unsplash
