Demand for the new iPad Pro is likely to be low for two reasons - TrendForce

One might expect that the advent of the first OLED screens and ultra-thin form factor would lead to high demand for the iPad Pro, but the new A forecast from market research firm TrendForce suggests that figure may actually be lower than last year.

The company predicts that total shipments of the latest iPad Pro models will “reach only 4.5 up to 5 million units in 2024.” – which will be switched off in 2023. This gives two reasons for such a pessimistic picture…

New iPad Pro models – thinner, OLED, M4 chip

When Apple announced the new iPad Pro models yesterday, there were three key improvements over earlier versions:

thinner form factor
OLED screens
M4 chip

Demand is likely to be relatively low

TrendForce estimates total demand for the iPad Pro this year will be about 4.5 million units. and 5 million units, which actually means a drop in demand compared to last year, despite the new features.

The company gives two reasons for this, the first of which is price. The new models increase the starting price by $200 (albeit with double the memory) and also require all-new Magic Keyboard and Apple Pencil Pro accessories. This makes the overall upgrade cost very high.

Best comment from Nutmac

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My two reasons:

The iPad Pro at $999 and up is quite expensive, but iPadOS has too many limitations compared to more powerful operating systems like macOS (files, multitasking, Stage Manager, etc.).

Updating all the accessories adds up, especially since Apple doesn't offer the program trade-in.

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But the second factor is the launch of the 13-inch iPad Air. I said earlier that I thought this was huge news.

First-time iPad Buyers no longer forced to pay for Pro features they don't need just to get a bigger screen.

TrendForce agrees.

appearance The 13-inch iPad Air could potentially dampen consumer interest, affecting demand for other models [including the new iPad Pro].

But-Apple-will-still-take-half-of-market

The company says that while demand may be lower than some expect, the overall size of the OLED iPad market is small, so Apple will take up about half of it.