Apple's Foldable iPhone Expected to Save Sudden Market Decline

A new report from DSCC highlights the challenges facing foldable smartphones in the market. They just suffered their first year-over-year decline, and things are expected to get worse. However, the report notes one reason for optimism: Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone.

Foldables' Rapid Growth Has Ended Sooner Than Expected

Foldables are still in their early stages, but they just hit an unfortunate peak. For the first time in history, Q3 2024 saw a year-over-year decline in panel purchases.

This appears to be more than just a blip, as display analysts at DSCC expect 2025 to see a full year of decline.

From the DSCC report:

After growing at least 40% per year between 2019 and 2023, DSCC now believes the foldable smartphone display market will grow by just 5% in 2024 and fall by 4% in 2025, with demand plateauing at around 22 million panels. Foldable smartphone display purchases fell 38% year-over-year in Q3 2024 and are expected to decline year-over-year in four of the next five quarters.

This all sounds like very bad news for companies betting on foldable devices.

Apple and the iPhone expected to turn things around

Unsurprisingly, the report expects Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone to be a game-changer.

The foldable iPhone is currently expected to launch in late 2026, and as a result, the DSCC predicts that this year will be a record year for foldable devices overall as Apple revitalizes the category.

Although the market has stalled and will decline for the first time based on panel procurement in 2025, there is reason for optimism. Apple is expected to enter the foldable smartphone market in 2H26 and given their dominant position in the flagship smartphone market, could generate significant growth in the foldable smartphone market. Any improvement in form factor, functionality, use cases, durability, etc. could drive new demand in this market. As a result, 2026 is expected to be a banner year for foldables with over 30% growth, with over 20% growth projected for 2027 and 2028.

Top comment by HalfwitWizard

Liked by 12 people

I’ve been a long-time Android user. I’ve seen my share of foldable phones, and once the novelty wears off, it’s more of a hassle than most people realize. The device is much more fragile, expensive, and many people don’t think about the screen getting absolutely filthy. With a regular phone, if you put it in and out of your pocket all day, the screen gets wiped. With a closed internal screen, when you put it in your pocket, the screen never gets wiped, all those oils and everything else stays inside the phone. I’ve seen both the foldable and flip screen get insanely dirty within a year. Not to mention the sound when those hinges get old. The creaking on my friend’s Galaxy Fold 4 sounds like a tiny haunted house.

Foldable screens are a really cool idea, and I’m sure there are some good uses for them, but I really don’t think smartphones are the market for them. Adding more complexity and points of failure for one such feature is not worth the tradeoff at this point (IMHO). I doubt Apple will even show it publicly for another decade.

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If Apple's foldable iPhone does come out, it will undoubtedly have a major impact on the foldable device market.

However, pinning all of the smartphone category's hopes on the iPhone seems problematic. If the device has already peaked, other smartphone makers likely have a bigger problem that Apple can solve on its own.

A foldable iPhone will certainly increase demand for foldable devices, but how much can it really change the fortunes of its competitors? Only time will tell.

What do you think about the fact that foldable devices are already starting to fade? How much of a difference will the iPhone make? Let us know in the comments.