Apple updated the iPad mini about a week ago, adding the A17 Pro chip and support for Apple Intelligence. However, that was the only announcement. The base model iPad was not updated. This was expected, but still a little puzzling. The current base model iPad is over two years old, so why would Apple leave it outdated?
History of the base model iPad
Apple introduced what we now call the entry-level iPad in 2017. Although the current model is the 10th generation, the budget nature of the product line began with the 5th generation. After the iPad Air was released in 2013, the iPad 4 was eventually discontinued, creating a large gap between “iPad” updates.
With the new iPad (5th generation), Apple decided to create a product to serve the masses, especially in education. It stripped away all the unnecessary features and limited itself to the essentials, skipping the latest chipset, laminated display, and Apple Pencil support. It also had a limited storage capacity: just 32GB. However, for $329, it was a great deal.
Apple continued to update this product every year, adding Apple Pencil support and a new chip in the 6th generation, a larger display in the 7th generation, a new chip and fast charging in the 8th generation, and more memory, a faster chip, and a Center Stage camera in the 9th generation.
Then, a year later, we got the biggest update ever to the base model iPad with the 10th generation. It inherited the modern iPad design language, got some fun colors, and switched to USB-C. However, it still stuck to the original formula, keeping the old chipset, non-laminated display, and not supporting the Apple Pencil 2. It still had to use the Apple Pencil 1 through a weird adapter, since the Apple Pencil 1 used Lightning and the iPad 10 used USB-C.
Why Skip an Update?
The current base model iPad is over 2 years old. It currently has an A14 chip, which was about 2 years old when it launched. Apple typically puts about 2 years old chipsets in the base model iPad with each update. And I think that might be the reason why there’s no new iPad.
Apple probably doesn't want to release a new product without Apple Intelligence since they've made it such a big part of all the marketing for new products. If history is any guide, the current iPad 11 refresh will have an A16 chip, which is incompatible with Apple Intelligence.
Sure, they could give it an A16 chip and 8GB of RAM, but I doubt Apple would want to optimize Apple Intelligence for even cheaper hardware, especially if it was only for one device.
At the current price of $349 for the iPad, it's unlikely that Apple would be able to fit a newer chipset than the A16 into the device. Additionally, since the iPad mini 7 uses the A17 Pro instead of the A18, it appears that Apple doesn't want to push the second-generation 3nm process too hard, which likely has limited capabilities. Putting the latest chip in their cheapest product doesn't make sense.
I think that, all things considered, an update to the base model iPad with Apple Intelligence would probably be unlikely to happen this year, which is why Apple has skipped an update to its most popular iPad for the second year in a row.
iPad 11 Release Date
With all that context in mind, you might be wondering: When will they actually refresh the base model iPad? We originally expected it to be in the fall, but that never happened. Display analyst Ross Young then said panels started shipping this month, suggesting a spring release. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman also confirmed the same timeline in a recent report:
During that same spring product release cycle, Apple plans to release a refreshed iPhone SE, new iPad Air models, and updated iPad keyboards. In that same window, Apple is also now aiming to release the entry-level 11th-generation iPad, codenamed J481 and J482, the people say.
So we're looking at a release next spring. By then, iPhone 16 production will likely be winding down, freeing up capacity for Apple's most popular iPad to use the latest A18 chip. This will allow Apple Intelligence, although it would be a bit odd for the base iPad to have a better chip than the iPad mini, so maybe they'll make it another refresh next fall.
The iPad mini uses leftover A17 Pro chips from iPhone 15 Pro production anyway, so there's a limited supply of them. They'll likely refresh the iPad mini as soon as they need to. Given that the base model iPad is significantly larger in volume than the iPad mini, I don't see it following the same strategy as the A17 Pro.
Wrap Up
Best comment by Hudson Gouge (Hg0428)
This was a really well thought out and informative article, unlike many others on this site. Thank you.
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Overall, it seems likely that Apple skipped updating the base model iPad because the lack of Apple Intelligence would have been bad for the optics. Either way, we won’t get an update until next year, which means Apple will be selling a nearly 3-year-old product with a 5-year-old chipset when it finally gets an update.
That’s pretty worrisome for long-term software support, but it seems to be our reality. In the meantime, Apple will get to enjoy additional iPad Air sales from customers who value the Apple Intelligence feature set but want to stay within a budget.
What do you think about Apple seemingly going all-in on Apple Intelligence? Let us know in the comments.
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