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Apple could see holiday quarter sales rise, report claims, but with claims that change less about the release of new iPhones and more about the supply chain and the slow holiday quarter in 2022.
Apple's financial performance hasn't performed as well as it could have in 2023, with three straight quarters worse than last year. decrease in income. However, the fourth quarter of 2023 could break this trend as holiday sales are expected to be strong.
In Bloomberg's Sunday “Power On” newsletter, Mark Gurman floats the idea that Apple is “poised for growth this holiday season” and could see its first sales increase in four quarters.
Gurman believes the financial improvement will be “less because of the can't-miss product line” and more because Apple's supply chain has improved. It will also compare favorably with the holiday shopping period a year ago, which was considered a “slow” period.
As long as Apple's supply chain isn't disrupted or faces difficulties in China, it has “an easy path to repaying the $117.2 billion it accumulated last holiday season,” Gurman writes. Based on Wall Street expectations, revenue will be about $123.5 billion, representing growth of 5%.
Gurman adds that this figure could have been higher since 2023 was a bright year for releases and the March product release cycle was skipped for the June launches of the M2 Macs. And even then, things like the existence of the Mac Pro are considered a “confusing upgrade” by consumers.
Similar claims are made about Apple Vision Pro, which will not be released until 2024 and will have “little impact on Apple’s financial performance for many years.” There's a performance boost to the 2023 Apple Watch lineup that isn't enough to be “largely noticeable,” and a relative lack of changes to the AirPods Pro.
“While the 2023 product lineup will likely allow Apple to meet its financial goals this holiday season, it really only serves as a stopgap for 2024,” Gurman concluded.