It's no secret that Apple's rollout of intelligence is gradual. The first six features are expected to launch later this month, and we don't expect the full debut of the new version of Siri until next year.
But one analyst thinks we should temper our expectations even further, and that the iPhone won't offer “serious” AI performance until 2026 or 2027 …
There was talk that Apple Intelligence would be the driving force behind the iPhone 16 supercycle, as everyone but iPhone 15 Pro owners would have to upgrade to get the new features. But the numbers so far suggest that iPhone sales this year are roughly on par with last year, meaning people don't see much of a pull in AI just yet.
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee isn't surprised. According to The Street, he said expectations for iPhone sales growth of 5-10% were “unlikely to be met.”
He believes Apple has a key advantage in AI compared to other smartphone brands, but thinks it will be two to three years before this significantly increases demand for new iPhone models.
“We like Apple Intelligence in the long term, as Apple is the only player integrated with hardware and software that can use its own data to offer low-cost, personalized AI services,” Lee said. “However, it will probably be 2026/27 before smartphone hardware can use serious AI,” he said. “However, Lee argues that Apple has a long-term advantage in terms of technology development and costs compared to its Android rivals, especially given its partnership with chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor.” He expects Apple to see growth in iPhone sales next year, but attributes this more to rumors of a thinner iPhone 17 Air than to Apple Intelligence. “We believe that AI-enabled smartphone technology is likely to arrive in two to three years due to limitations in high-speed memory and advanced packaging technology,” he said. “[But] a thin Apple model (17 Air) in 2025 could attract more demand for upgrades.”
Graphics: Apple and Michael Bauer/9to5Mac
